Derby County v Newcastle United – Match Preview

Tuesday night sees Newcastle trying to extend their unbeaten league record to 16. Derby have not lost to Newcastle since 2002. Is a draw guaranteed?

Derby have proved to be a thorn in Newcastle’s side in the last few years, with Sam Allardyce in particular gifting the Rams 4 of their record low 11 points in a Premier League season.

Nigel Clough has led a relative charge in recent weeks, with a win important to both of tonight’s teams being the highlight. The big battle with Clough senior’s other team, Forest, resulted in perhaps one of the landmark scores of the season, leading to Forest’s first away defeat.

A win for Nigel tonight would give him his first run of 3 wins in 5 this season. His team has been noted of late for their battling qualities, and with only 3 out of 6 home wins as a player against Newcastle, will hope to improve on his record.

Like Hughton, he has made a couple of additions to his squad, with Milwall winger David Martin arriving on loan, as has Javan Vidal from Man City. Lee Croft is available after recovering from a hamstring injury.

Due to continue in goal is Stephen Bywater, who has not let in more than 1 goal in each of his last 6 matches. Given that defensive record, it is hard to look beyond McEveley, scoerer last time out, Hunt, Buxton and Barker in the back line.

Midfield would also seem to pick itself, with the ever industrious, if only at jaw level, Savage, bound to partner Commons, who has often looked class this season. Paul Green is another almost certaintly, with Michael Tonge on loan from Stoke to his 2^nd club this season, already having suffered a defeat with Preston in his home debut for them against the Toon.

Pearson is a wide man who is expected to push forward, whilst the line will be led by the veteran striker and top scorer with 7, Rob Hulse.

Hughton’s indecision will be compounded by the impressive home win against Cardiff last Friday. Harper is an obvious in goal, with Simpson continuing at right back in his first away start as a permanent player as does Williamson after one game on loan, as Fitz Hall could also make his away debut. Van Aanholt suddenly looks like a veteran in his 3^rd start.

Since this match is away, Smith should start after recovering from another knock. If Smith does play, Hughton has the headache of abandoning his preferred 4-5-1 away or relegating one of top scorer Nolan, top creator Guthrie or inspired signing Routledge to the bench.

None of the strikers have scored for the Toon against Derby, but each seeks to press his claim for the number 9 shirt. Carroll is on fire with a goal per each of his last 75 minutes on the field. Lovenkrands can boast a better average of 43 minutes for his last 6 goals whilst Shola has 7 from 8 league starts. Leon Best can not be ignored as a new signing who scored at Pride Park for Coventry (as did Routledge last season for QPR) and Ranger has scored 2 from the bench.

Referee for the event is Anthony Taylor making his first away appearance with Newcastle, the first being for Shola’s hat trick performance at home against Reading. He has refereed Derby twice but not at Pride Park, with a defeat and a victory away.

Looking to the result, 6 of Derby’s 7 wins at home have come in pairs, the last home win against Forest coming on the back of a defeat against Scunthorpe. Newcastle will have to break that sequence to maintain the unbeaten record, the last away loss also having been against Scunthorpe.

The advantage that Hughton has since the transfer window, is being able to be unpredictable in his team selection, although he knows that Derby at the moment always put in a wholehearted effort.

Derby have only scored more than once in a match out of the last 13 once, against lowly Peterborough since drawing 2-2 with WBA in early December. Sheffield Wednesday surprised the Toon with their first brace for several matches, but it is hard to see Derby doing the same.

If Hughton picks a counter attacking formation, he should avoid a repetition of the last 3 games against East Midlands sides, which all finished with the Toon firing blanks, away against Leicester and Forest, and in the home match against Derby.

This could be a tense match, but is is hard to see a Newcastle defeat, just as it is hard to see an emphatic victory unless Hughton again surprises in his team selection, although a first win at Pride Park would be welcome, making another statement as being the first of the current top six to notch an away win in Derby.

Toon in Derby:

P60 W19 D17 L24 F79 A88

2^nd tier

P9 W4 D1 L4 F14 A15